Control the controllables
Sunday, November 23rd, 2008You’d have to be on Mars not to know that we’re experiencing some of the most volatile markets in history. Let’s not kid ourselves…..this is not fun!
Having said that, what are we really concerned about? Why is there so much “panic” and fear around?
I’m not an expert when it comes to emotions but it seems to me that behind the concern that seems to be pervading the stock markets is a fear of losing lifestyle. Most people would be totally relaxed if they could maintain their lifestyle no matter what happened in the market.
Let’s take a look at a real life example of a client who requires $54,000 pa to fund their desired lifestyle:
Pension Account Value as at 10/10/07: $1,142,000
Drawdown over the past 12 months: $ 54,000
Pension Value as at 10/10/08: $ 858,000
In projecting how long the money might last in a meeting 12 months ago, a simple assessment ensued as follows:
Assumptions:
1. Conservative investment return ongoing of 7% pa
2. Cost of living at $54,000 pa indexed at 3% CPI
The projected balance of funds remaining after:
5 Years $1,250,000
10 Years $1,346,000
15 Years $1,415,000
Today (10th October 2008) one year later, the average return required to get that client back to $1,346,000 (“nine” years from now) is 11.67% pa. To get back to $1,415,000 (“fourteen” years from now) is 10.35% pa.
Is this achievable? History says yes. The average return of a model balanced portfolio (25% defensive and 75% growth assets) from 1985 to 30 September 2008 should have been around 11.39% pa. During the 5 years to 31 December 2007, this portfolio should have a return of 13.10% pa.
That’s not to say we shouldn’t do whatever we can to manage our situation. My view is control the “controllables” and don’t worry about the “uncontrollables”.
So what can you control?
1. Diversify
A year ago, International assets, particularly shares didn’t look too good. Fixed Interest funds were also significantly underperforming. In the past 3 moths in particular, they’ve certainly helped overall performance with the unit prices of the global equities funds (in our portfolios) increasing by in excess of 9%. (This is due to the decline in the Australian dollar).
The drop in interest rates has also helped improve the value of the fixed interest assets in the portfolios. Short-term Australian Fixed Interest funds have had a return of 7.80% and the International Fixed Interest has a return of 5.95% for the last 12 months up to 30 September 2008.
Diversification is the one ‘free lunch’ that you get when investing.
2. Eliminate Unnecessary Spending – there’s no harm in “tightening the belt” where it doesn’t affect your lifestyle.
3. Stay in touch with your adviser – you need a framework for making decisions and then an ability to keep your emotions from corroding that framework.
Justin Hooper,CEO, Sentinel Wealth Management, www.sentinelwealth.com.au
















